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England and Croatia have unfinished business. In the 2018 World Cup semi-final in Moscow, Croatia came from behind to win 2-1 in extra time and send England home – a defeat that still stings in every pub from Manchester to Christchurch where English football is followed. In the Euro 2020 group stage at Wembley, England returned the favour with a 1-0 victory that launched their run to the final. Now FIFA’s draw has thrown them together again in World Cup 2026 Group L, and this time the stakes include two automatic qualification spots, a potential third-place escape route, and the weight of 58 years of English disappointment pressing down on the best squad the Three Lions have assembled since 1966.
I have analysed England at four consecutive major tournaments, and the pattern is exhaustingly consistent: arrive as one of the favourites, play well enough to reach the latter stages, then fall just short in a manner that feels simultaneously inevitable and crushingly unfair. The 2024 European Championship final defeat to Spain – England’s second consecutive major final loss – was the latest chapter in a story that began in 1966 and has produced nothing but near-misses since. The 2026 squad is arguably the most talented England have ever produced. Jude Bellingham is 22 and already operates at a level that draws comparisons with Zinédine Zidane’s pomp. Bukayo Saka has matured from a promising teenager into one of the most complete wingers in European football. Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Declan Rice – the list of genuine world-class players runs deeper than any previous England squad.
The question that hangs over England in Group L is coaching. A new manager – appointed after the European Championship – inherits a squad of extraordinary individual quality and the challenge of moulding them into a cohesive unit capable of winning seven consecutive knockout matches. England’s group-stage record at recent tournaments is strong: they have lost only one group match in their last four major tournaments. But complacency is the risk. If England treat Group L as a formality, Croatia have the quality to punish them. The bookmakers price England at approximately 1.25 to qualify from the group, which implies a 80% probability. I think the true figure is higher – perhaps 90% – but the value in backing England at that price is negligible.
Luka Modrić turned 40 in September 2025, and the only question that matters for Croatia’s World Cup campaign is whether the greatest midfielder of his generation can summon one more performance on the biggest stage. Croatia’s trajectory across the last three World Cups is remarkable: final in 2018, semi-final in 2022, and a third-place finish at the 2023 Nations League. This is a nation of 3.9 million people that consistently outperforms its population ranking in world football, built on a production line of technically gifted midfielders and a tactical identity that prioritises ball retention and positional play over pace and power.
Croatia qualified for 2026 through the European zone in second place behind France, and their campaign featured Modrić starting all but two matches in a deeper role that conserves his energy for decisive moments. The supporting cast has improved – Josko Gvardiol is now one of the world’s best centre-backs, Mateo Kovačić provides elite ball-carrying through midfield, and a new generation of forwards led by players from Serie A and the Bundesliga offers more firepower than the 2022 squad possessed. In Group L, Croatia are the clear second seeds and the team most likely to challenge England for top spot. The head-to-head on Matchday 2 or 3 is the fixture that will determine the group’s final standings.
Panama qualified for their second World Cup by finishing fifth in the CONCACAF final round, earning their place through resilience rather than flair. Their 2018 World Cup debut in Russia ended with three defeats and a tournament-high eight goals conceded, but the experience planted a seed. The 2026 squad is older, wiser and built on a defensive structure that proved difficult to break down across 14 qualifying matches – Panama conceded just 12 goals in the final round, fewer than both Mexico and the United States. Their attacking output is limited: 15 goals in those same 14 matches, with the majority coming from set pieces and direct counter-attacks rather than sustained possession play.
Panama’s role in Group L is that of the disruptor. They will not qualify – the gap between their squad quality and England’s or Croatia’s is too wide for the group stage to bridge – but they can influence which of the two favourites tops the group and which finishes second. If Panama take a point from either England or Croatia through disciplined defending and a set-piece goal, the consequences ripple through the group standings. For bettors, Panama matches are about the margins: the under/over line, the correct score, the first-half result. Back Panama to lose, but back them to make it uncomfortable.
Ghana’s last two World Cup campaigns produced one of the most dramatic moments in tournament history – Asamoah Gyan’s missed penalty against Uruguay in the 2010 quarter-final, after Luis Suárez’s deliberate handball on the goal line – and a 2022 group-stage exit that left the squad and nation frustrated. The 2026 squad is a generational reset: younger, faster, more technically polished, with players drawn from the English Premier League, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Ghana qualified through the African zone in a group that included Nigeria, finishing second behind Côte d’Ivoire with a record that featured more wins than any other African qualifier except Morocco.
In Group L, Ghana represent the most unpredictable element. Their pace on the counter-attack can trouble any defence – including England’s, which has historically struggled against quick transitions in the wide areas. Ghana’s weakness is consistency: they can produce a 45-minute spell of brilliant football followed by 45 minutes of disorganisation, and the difference between those two versions often comes down to midfield discipline and whether the defensive line holds its shape under pressure. For bettors, Ghana to score in every match is a prop worth considering. They have the speed to create chances against anyone, and even in defeats, they tend to find the net at least once.
Group L’s fixture schedule is backloaded – the two heavyweight matches between the stronger teams come on Matchdays 2 and 3, giving England and Croatia a chance to build momentum against the weaker sides before they meet. For Kiwi viewers, the timing depends on the US venue, with most fixtures falling in the NZ morning or early afternoon.
| Date | Match | Venue | NZT | ET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 June (Mon) | England vs Panama | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia | 16 June, 10:00 | 18:00 |
| 16 June (Tue) | Croatia vs Ghana | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 17 June, 10:00 | 18:00 |
| 20 June (Sat) | England vs Croatia | MetLife Stadium, New York/NJ | 21 June, 13:00 | 21:00 |
| 20 June (Sat) | Panama vs Ghana | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 21 June, 07:00 | 15:00 |
| 25 June (Wed) | England vs Ghana | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia | 26 June, 07:00 | 15:00 |
| 25 June (Wed) | Croatia vs Panama | Gillette Stadium, Boston | 26 June, 07:00 | 15:00 |
The standout fixture – England vs Croatia at MetLife Stadium on 20 June – falls at 13:00 NZST on a Sunday, which is near-perfect viewing for New Zealand audiences. MetLife is the venue selected for the World Cup final, and this group-stage clash will give both teams a preview of the stadium where the tournament concludes on 19 July. The atmosphere for England vs Croatia in a 82,500-seat stadium in the New York metropolitan area – home to enormous English, Croatian and general football diaspora communities – will be among the loudest of any group-stage match in the tournament.
My prediction model gives England a 68% probability of topping Group L, Croatia 24%, Ghana 6% and Panama 2%. Those numbers reflect squad quality, recent tournament performance and the historical advantage that seeded teams hold in the opening match of their group. England should beat Panama and Ghana without serious difficulty, though “should” is a word that English football has turned into a punchline over decades of underperformance. The match that determines Group L is England vs Croatia, and the result of that fixture will establish the seeding positions for both teams entering the round of 32.
Croatia’s best path through the group is to beat Ghana on Matchday 1, draw with England on Matchday 2 and beat Panama on Matchday 3 – collecting seven points and potentially topping the group on goal difference if England also draw one match. That scenario requires Modrić to deliver at least one more masterclass-level performance, Gvardiol to contain Bellingham’s runs from midfield, and the Croatian forwards to convert the chances that Kovačić’s progressive carries will create. It is entirely plausible. Croatia have reached the final or semi-final at two of the last three World Cups, and they do not fold under pressure the way other mid-tier European nations do.
Ghana and Panama are fighting for third place and the possibility of advancing as one of the eight best third-placed teams. Ghana have the better squad and the pace to steal a result against a complacent opponent, but Panama’s defensive discipline could accumulate more points if they can grind out draws. A Ghana win against Panama on Matchday 2 would effectively end Panama’s tournament and position Ghana as the strongest contender for the third-place escape route. If Ghana collect four points – beating Panama and drawing with one of the top two – they have a genuine chance of reaching the round of 32.
England to win Group L is priced at approximately 1.45 on TAB NZ – a fair price that reflects their squad superiority but offers minimal value. Croatia to win the group at around 3.80 is more interesting, particularly if you believe Modrić can produce one final tournament-level performance that lifts the team above their ranking. The bet I find most compelling in Group L is Croatia to qualify (finish top two) at approximately 1.50 – a price that implies a 67% probability, which I believe is too low given Croatia’s pedigree and the group’s structure.
For match-level bets, England to win and both teams to score against Ghana on Matchday 3 looks like strong value if priced above 3.00. Ghana’s attacking pace will create chances, but England’s depth of quality should be enough to win comfortably in a match where they might already be qualified. The under 2.5 goals in Croatia vs Panama on Matchday 3 is another angle – Panama’s defensive identity and Croatia’s controlled possession style produce tight, low-scoring matches where the first goal decides everything.
Strip away the group-stage context and England versus Croatia is one of the best fixtures in international football. The tactical contrast alone justifies the attention: England’s vertical, transition-heavy approach versus Croatia’s patient, possession-dominant style. Bellingham driving forward from midfield against Modrić and Kovačić recycling the ball in tight spaces. Saka’s dribbling against Gvardiol’s positioning. These individual duels will determine the outcome, and each one is a match within the match that deserves its own analysis.
England’s approach under their new manager has shifted towards a more aggressive pressing style, winning the ball higher up the pitch and attacking quickly through the centre rather than relying on wing play. Against Croatia, that press will need to be disciplined – Modrić and Kovačić are two of the best press-breakers in world football, capable of turning a high pressing trap into a four-on-three counter-attack with a single pass. If England’s press is even slightly disorganised, Croatia will exploit the space behind the midfield line with devastating precision.
The betting market for this match will likely settle around England at 1.80, the draw at 3.40 and Croatia at 4.50. I see the draw as the value play. Both teams will be cautious – England because they have never needed to beat Croatia at a World Cup to advance, Croatia because a point against the group favourites sets up their qualification perfectly. World Cup group-stage matches between two qualified or near-qualified teams tend to produce conservative football, and the draw has been the result in 34% of such fixtures over the past three tournaments. At 3.40, that is a price worth taking.
Group L is not the most dramatic group at the 2026 World Cup, but it is the most watchable. England’s squad depth, Croatia’s tactical intelligence, Ghana’s explosive pace and Panama’s defensive grit combine to produce a group where every match has a clear narrative and every result carries consequences. For NZ bettors, the group offers opportunities in the match-result and goals markets, particularly around the England-Croatia fixture and the Ghana matches where pace creates chances regardless of the final score. Watch for the Modrić factor – if the 40-year-old maestro rolls back the years one final time, Croatia are capable of topping this group and setting up a knockout-round run that mirrors their 2018 campaign. And if England finally convert their extraordinary talent into the results their supporters have been waiting 58 years to see, the journey starts here, in Group L, against the opponents who have caused them more heartbreak than almost any other.